预算公开与廉洁政府关系的实证研究——基于OBI与CPI的相关性检测

预算公开与廉洁政府建设是学术界关注的热门话题,两者之间的关系更是其中的重点。2006、2008、2010与2012四个年度共同涉及的44个国家的预算公开指数与清廉指数的相关性检测表明,预算公开指数与清廉指数之间呈正相关关系,且基本属于高度相关,部分国家数据的不对称只是虚假背离。高度契合与虚假背离的背后起决定性作用的是成熟的民主政治,因此,预算公开推动廉洁政府建设需要以成熟的民主政治为前提和基石。     

战略性新兴产业集群创新网络形成机制研究——基于灰靶双边匹配的决策方法

战略性新兴产业的发展对国民经济和社会发展具有重要的战略意义，目前中国战略性新兴产业仍面临着“高端产业，低端技术”的发展困境，如何突破产业关键技术促进产业健康、可持续发展已成为亟待解决的问题。战略性新兴产业集群创新网络的形成是突破产业关键技术、共性技术及前瞻性技术的核心环节，中国正在兴起的产业技术研究院、航空高技术产业园等跨组织知识集成平台为培育和发展战略性新兴产业集群创新网络提供了重要的支撑平台。本文依托跨组织知识集成平台探究了战略性新兴产业集群创新网络的形成机制，构建了创新主体间的灰靶双边匹配模型，并采用平衡计分法建立了以创新能力为重要衡量标准的综合评价指标体系，最后通过案例进行了分析，证明了其有效性和实用性，可为促进战略性新兴产业集群创新网络的形成提供理论指导。     

Regulation of relationships between heterogeneous farmers and an aquifer accounting for lag effects

Many environmental problems are due to damage caused by pollutants that accumulate with a time lag following their emission. In this study, we focus on nitrates used in agriculture, which can pollute groundwater many years after their initial application. A dynamic optimal control problem with heterogeneous farmers is proposed. The usual structural parameters such as the discount rate, the natural clearing rate and the lagged time interval between the occurrence of soil‐level pollution and the impact on groundwater are taken into account. We also examine pollution as caused by a continuous set of farms characterised by their individual performance index and by their individual marginal contribution to the pollution. The issue is further investigated by taking account of change in the information context, successively related to perfect information and to asymmetric information. As a result, when the delay between the spreading of N‐fertilizer and the impact on the aquifer increases, that is, the longer the lag, the steady‐state pollution stock and the steady‐state shadow price of the stock both increase. Moreover, we show that the optimal regulation may require a decreasing amount of fertilizer over time, even in the case of initial underpollution.     

Current issues and research trends on open-source software communities

Open source software (OSS) projects represent a new paradigm of software creation and development based on hundreds or even thousands of developers and users organised in the form of a virtual community. The success of an OSS project is closely linked to the successful organisation and development of the virtual community of support group. This paper reviews different fields and research topics related to the OSS communities such as collective intelligence, the structure of OSS communities, their success, communities as virtual organisations, motivation, shared knowledge, innovation and learning. The main challenges, results obtained, and the knowledge areas are detailed for each topic.     

Open Market Operation Effectiveness in China

This paper examines the effectiveness of target rate guidance in open market operation by the central bank in China (PBOC). We find that target rate change in open market operation is effective in adjusting the short-term Treasury rates. The target rate changing direction is more effective than the target rate changing level. There is no significant asymmetry in the effectiveness between the target rate increase and target rate decrease. We also document that the effectiveness of the target rate is conditional on liquidity operation of the same direction, especially when they both aim to loosen the monetary policy. Furthermore, consecutive operations with higher intensity appear to be more effective in adjusting the market interest rate.     

河南省农业面源污染成因分析

近年来,农业面源污染给我国农村生态环境造成了一定的破坏,挖掘农业面源污染的成因及问题对今后农业面源污染的治理具有重要意义。文章以河南省为探讨对象,首先阐述了农业面源污染含义及主要特点。利用文献分析和统计方法对河南省农业化学品投入使用及污染情况进行分析,2007~2014年河南省化肥及农药产量和使用量均呈上涨趋势,污染面积及范围进一步扩大,面源污染的主要来源是化肥、农药、秸秆及生活垃圾。而人口快速增长、经济利益驱使、政策方面不健全是造成农业面源污染主要原因。该文认为,解决农业面源污染应从推广减量技术,积极发展有机(生态)农业;提高思想认识,树立科学农业发展理念;大力推广精准农业,减轻面源污染程度;建立健全环境法规,完善政策及管理体系等4个方面入手,以期为其他地区农业面源污染治理提供借鉴和参考。     

Exploring effects of source similarity,message valence,and receiver regulatory focus on yelp review persuasiveness and purchase intentions

This study is among the first to investigate the impact of message, source, and receiver characteristics on user attitudes toward Yelp reviews, with the subsequent impact of these attitudinal evaluations on review persuasiveness. Specifically, it examines the roles of review valence (positive/negative) and sidedness (one-sided/two-sided), as well as perceived similarity with the reviewer, on user perceptions of helpfulness, trustworthiness, and credibility of the review. The study also tests moderating effects of perceived source similarity and user regulatory focus on the relationships among message characteristics, attitudinal variables, and purchase intentions. Our results disconfirm the negativity bias reported in previous studies and indicate that positive reviews are perceived as more trustworthy, credible, and helpful than negative or two-sided reviews. Review helpfulness and credibility, in turn, positively impacts its persuasiveness, with regulatory focus playing a complex nuanced role in the persuasiveness – behavioral intentions relationship. Based on the findings, future research avenues and managerial implications are proposed.     

我国出租车牌照拍卖机制研究

论文以有效分配、促进竞争、实现经济价值为目标，建立了公开升价拍卖+密封拍卖的两阶段牌照拍卖模型，证明了其有效性和最优性。并以北京市为例讨论了牌照数量的确定、进入密封拍卖阶段的时机和牌照的流通等实际问题。这些讨论将有利于拍卖机制在现实中的操作实施。     

Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy

Is there a link between capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a country with a floating currency? Shocks to capital flows into a small open economy lead to volatility in asset prices and credit supply. To lessen the impact of capital flows on financial instability, a central bank finds it optimal to use the domestic interest rate to “manage” the capital account. Capital account restrictions affect the behavior of optimal monetary policy following shocks to the foreign interest rate. Capital controls allow optimal monetary policy to focus less on the foreign interest rate and more on domestic variables.     

GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy

Despite data limitations, an attempt is made to find out if a GDP nowcasting model can provide reliable forecasts for a small open economy. Two competing Bayesian vector autoregressive models are tested rigorously to obtain the optimal model by minimizing in-sample forecasting errors. The main finding of this study is that GDP nowcasting can produce reliable results for a small open economy despite the unavailability of sufficient data sets and the lack of high frequency indicators.